Tropical Tuesday: Disturbance has 50 percent chance of development over Atlantic

Posted: Jul 03, 2018 10:19 PM Updated:

A disturbance south of Bermuda over the Atlantic Ocean now has a 50 percent shot in the next five days of forming into at least a tropical depression. 

That's the big news this evening out of the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.  What's good for Florida in this update though is that even if it becomes a named system, it's not coming here.  

Here's what's happening.  What's now just a disorganized cluster of showers and storms is likely to take on a more organized low pressure appearance by the end of the work week.  When a front moves toward the eastern US this weekend though what, if anything, comes about from this developing low will start curling back toward the northeast in the next five days.  This means that the path of what the NHC gives 50% odds to for developing is unlikely at best to directly impact the US. 

 

If this system is able to beat the odds and become a tropical storm, the next name on this year's naming list is "Beryl".  

What will impact the US's weather (and our forecast here in Florida the next few days) is a weather disturbance located west of what the NHC is following.  This disturbance is higher in the atmosphere (up past 15,000 feet up).  As it moves westward in the coming days, the system will help to enhance the sea breeze-driven thunderstorms already in our forecast on Wednesday and Thursday. 

Elsewhere in the tropics tonight, there is one tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic Ocean currently closer to Africa than North America that's been firing up some fairly robust weather.  This has low odds of development over the next few days (20% in the five day outlook).  With this and given its distance from the US we'll continue to monitor it and provide updates as needed during NBC2 Newscasts.

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