Weather Blog: Two areas to watch in the tropics

Posted: Jul 05, 2018 8:18 AM Updated:

The National Hurricane Center is watching two areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic Ocean for potential tropical development. One is fairly close to the United States, while the other is in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean. Neither feature poses an imminent risk to North America.

Let's begin our analysis by focusing on the stronger of the two systems. The one most likely to become at least a tropical depression in the not too distant future is in the open Atlantic Ocean about 1,000 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Though a large plume of African dust from the Saharan Air Layer remains in place north of this system, the currently disorganized cluster of showers and storms has been fairly robust in keeping convection going as it drifts westward.

Given the development of the storms with this disturbance as seen by satellite, the National Hurricane Center says there's a high 70 percent chance of developing into at least a depression. (A tropical system with sustained winds less than 39 mph). Should this system strengthen into a tropical storm, the next name on the tropical storm and hurricane naming list is Beryl.

Though this is often an area of the globe where storms have had a history of moving toward Florida from, this system may encounter some roadblocks over the next 7 days as stronger upper levels winds become more apparent as it nears the Lesser Antilles (islands between the Caribbean and Atlantic).

 

We'll continue to monitor this feature and provide updates during NBC2 Newscasts throughout the next several days.

The second disturbance worthy of being watched is a weaker one south of the island of Bermuda in the western Atlantic. Though based on satellites this feature isn't as strong as the one off of Africa, it has at least a 50 percent chance to become a tropical depression in the next five days as according to the National Hurricane Center.

While it's proximity to the United States and Bermuda is notable, a direct threat to the US doesn't seem too likely with this feature because of the influence of a front moving toward the eastern United States by this weekend. This front should help to essentially deflect any developing system over the ocean northeastward in the long-term outlook. That would have it take on a curling motion away from the US mainland, keeping impacts to the US lower and indirect from the main system.

This system continues to pose no threat to Florida, but as always, we'll monitor the situation and keep you informed of any and all changes.

 

 

 

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