Atlantic Coming Alive: tracking two tropical waves

Posted: Aug 30, 2018 12:06 PM -04:00 Updated:

The Atlantic basin has been remarkably calm since the middle of August, but the tropics could heat up very soon as we approach the historical peak of hurricane season.

There are two disturbances that have our attention.

The first one is just now rolling off the coast of Africa into the eastern Atlantic and has been classified as a "potential tropical cyclone" by the National Hurricane Center.

This means tropical development is very likely and could develop into Tropical Storm Florence as early as Friday morning.

This is by far the most impressive tropical wave of the season in this part of the Atlantic, and the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team puts the odds of development into a tropical storm at 90% and the chance of development into a hurricane at 70%.

The good news is we're seeing very strong agreement among our most reliable forecast models that soon-to-be Florence will not be a threat to the U.S.

As the storm develops over the next several days and heads west, we expect the system to turn north over the central Atlantic and then northeast, re-curving harmlessly out to sea by late next week.

We'll continue to monitor this potential storm closely and let you know if anything changes.

 

 

The tropical disturbance that will be more interesting for us to watch back home in the U.S. is one gliding west-northwest near Puerto Rico and the outer Caribbean Islands.

The chance of this developing into a tropical system looks pretty slim at this point thanks to strong wind shear in this part of the Atlantic, but it's something that needs to be watched over the next few days.

The most likely scenario is this tropical wave floats toward Florida Tuesday and Wednesday of next week, which would simply just increase our rain chances and cloud cover for a couple of days.

Once this tropical wave passes Southwest Florida and moves into the Gulf of Mexico, the environment could become more favorable for development, so it's still one we want to track closely in the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Center.

 

Check back with NBC2 online and on-air for the latest tropical updates.

You can always count on the NBC2 First Alert Hurricane Tracking Team to alert you FIRST as we approach the peak of hurricane season.

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